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Longstanding tensions between the US and Iran, stretching back decades, have led to the current status quo. The US-Iran relationship was affected by several notable incidents in history that has led to a deep, mutual mistrust between the two sides. This includes the CIA-backed overthrow of the country's democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, in 1953 and the installation of a Western-aligned monarch. Other key events include the 1979 Iranian revolution, which removed the US-backed monarch, and the Iranian hostage crisis the same year when Islamist students stormed and occupied the US Embassy in Tehran for 444 days. In addition, the bombing of a US Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983 and the 1988 shooting down of an Iranian passenger airline by the US, which although deemed an accident by the Americans, was viewed by many Iranians as evidence of the US’s determination to destroy the Islamic Republic that followed the Iranian Revolution.
While the previous administration of former US President Barack Obama sought to defuse tensions with Iran, current US President Donald Trump has taken a particularly hostile attitude toward Iran, with the Trump administration appearing eager to confront Iran. This has led to steadily increasing tensions between the two countries since Trump came to power in January 2017, particularly after the US unilaterally pulled out of the 2015 Nuclear Deal last year and re-imposed sanctions on Iran.
As part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, the US has been increasing sanctions against Iran, aimed at forcing Iran to change its ‘destabilising behaviour’ in the region and to return to the negotiating table to agree a new nuclear deal. In April, the US announced that it will not renew sanction waivers on imports of Iranian oil when the waivers expired on 2 May. This was part of the US’s aspiration to deprive Iran of USD50 billion in annual oil revenues by reducing Iranian oil exports to zero.
A series of other actions in recent months have contributed to increasing tensions, including the US designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organisation and Iran repeating threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of seven maritime choke points for the global oil trade. Iran retaliated against the IRGC designation by then labelling all US forces as terrorist, raising concerns of attacks by Iran or Iran-backed groups against US forces or interests in the Middle East and prompting an increased US military presence in the region.
Additionally, recent attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman were blamed on Iran, for which Iran denied responsibility. Similarly, Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq have been blamed for a series of rocket attacks near US assets in Iraq and for a drone attack on the east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia. More recently, on 20 June, Iran shot down a US military surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
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On 1 July, it was confirmed that Iran had breached its enriched uranium stockpile limits in violation of the 2015 Nuclear Deal. This is expected to contribute to further increased tensions with the Trump administration in the coming weeks. The development comes after Iran, on the first anniversary of the US’s unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear Deal in May, threatened to withdraw from key commitments in the nuclear deal by 7 July if European powers did not meet financial and oil commitments in regards to protecting Iran from US sanctions.
Iran is also due to take further moves to breach the nuclear deal after 7 July by increasing uranium enrichment purity levels over the 3.67 percent limit specified in the deal. However, Iran may choose to only increase the purity levels to 3.68 percent in a symbolic move. This would be far below the weapons-grade level of more than 90 percent needed for fissile material in a nuclear bomb but is likely to raise concerns of Iran shortening the time needed to reach this level. However, Iran’s foreign minister stated that Iran’s measures were "reversible" if the Europeans began abiding by their commitments.
Failure by European powers to stop the collapse of the nuclear deal could result in the EU joining the US in imposing sanctions on Iran. This in turn has the potential to increase the risk of action by Iran in an attempt to force the West into loosening its impact on the Iranian economy. This could take the form of acting on threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, military action, or continuing efforts to step up nuclear activities. However, European powers see the nuclear deal as crucial for regional stability and are likely to continue efforts to dissuade Iran from breaching the nuclear deal.
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